Lundin Mining (TSX: LUN) has raised its full-year copper production forecast and lowered its cost outlook after reporting stronger-than-expected results from its Caserones mine in Chile. The company now expects to produce between 319,000 and 337,000 tonnes of copper in 2025, up about 4% from its previous guidance of 303,000 to 330,000 tonnes.

The revised forecast comes alongside an improvement across key financial metrics, including production, revenue, and earnings. In its latest quarterly report, the Vancouver-based miner said it generated over $1 billion in revenue and delivered $383 million in adjusted operating cash flow. Copper output, revenue, EBITDA, and earnings all increased compared with both the first and second quarters of the year.

Average consolidated copper cash costs dropped to $1.61 per pound, about 6% lower than in 2024 and the company’s lowest quarterly level so far this year. “We are updating our full-year guidance to reflect strong operational performance, particularly at Caserones,” said president and CEO Jack Lundin. He noted that the midpoint of the company’s copper production outlook had increased by 11,500 tonnes, reaching a new midpoint of 328,000 tonnes within the revised range.

The stronger output at Caserones, along with improved results from the Chapada mine in Brazil, prompted Lundin Mining to cut its overall copper cash cost guidance to $1.85–$2 per pound. “Strong performance at Caserones and Chapada resulted in cost guidance cuts of approximately 12% and 21%, respectively, driving the overall cost reduction,” said Matt Murphy, analyst at BMO Capital Markets. He added that the company appears on track to achieve its updated targets, having already produced 75% of the copper guidance midpoint for the year and currently tracking below the midpoint of the new cost range.

Production and sales figures also outperformed expectations. Lundin’s copper output reached 87,400 tonnes, exceeding the market consensus of 81,100 tonnes. Gold production came in at 37,800 ounces, closely matching forecasts of 37,600 ounces. Copper sales totalled 78,800 tonnes, ahead of expectations of 76,400 tonnes, while gold sales of 38,800 ounces topped consensus estimates of 36,000 ounces.

The company’s operational improvements led analysts to boost their outlook for the stock. BMO’s Murphy raised his price target for Lundin Mining by 14% to C$25, citing a stronger operational record and long-term growth potential.

Alongside its financial update, Lundin announced a leadership change connected to its joint ventures in South America. Ron Hochstein, who has served as president and CEO of Lundin Gold (TSX, NASDAQ: LUG) since 2015, will become the chief executive officer of Vicuña Corp. on Friday. The newly created entity is a joint venture between Lundin Mining and BHP (ASX, NYSE: BHP) overseeing the Filo del Sol and Josemaría copper-gold projects straddling the Chile-Argentina border.

Under Hochstein’s leadership, Lundin Gold developed Fruta del Norte in Ecuador, one of only two large-scale operating mines in the country. He has previously described the project as “a standard for responsible mining development.”

The combination of strong operating performance in Chile and Brazil, lower production costs, and strategic leadership changes at the corporate level have positioned Lundin Mining for what analysts see as a more confident close to the year.

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