Shares of Ivanhoe Mines (TSX:IVN) rebounded on Monday following the company’s announcement of a two-stage plan to dewater and partially restart operations at its Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The update marks the first major step toward recovery since severe flooding forced the suspension of operations on May 18. Ivanhoe’s stock rose as much as 7.5% to C$11.56 by mid-morning trading, recovering to its highest level since the week the flooding was reported. The rally lifted the Canadian miner’s market capitalization back above C$15 billion.
The suspension of mining activity at Kakula was triggered by seismic activity on May 18, which led to extensive underground flooding. Kakula forms part of the Kamoa-Kakula copper complex, the largest copper-producing operation in Africa. The complex is jointly owned by Ivanhoe Mines and China’s Zijin Mining, each holding a 39.6% stake, while the government of the DRC maintains a 20% interest.
The seismic event primarily affected the eastern portion of the Kakula mine. The western part of the mine remained unaffected by water ingress and is central to Ivanhoe’s immediate plans to resume production.
In a press release issued Monday, Ivanhoe outlined a detailed two-phase dewatering strategy. According to the company, Stage 1 of the plan — focused on stabilizing the mine’s current water levels — has already been completed. This involved the installation of temporary underground pumping systems with a combined capacity of 4,400 litres per second, which is sufficient to manage ongoing water inflows. Stage 2, which is currently underway, aims to fully dewater the affected underground sections. Ivanhoe has ordered four high-capacity, surface-mounted pumps, each capable of adding 650 litres per second of pumping capacity. The company expects delivery and installation of these pumps within the next 90 days, though no specific timeline was given for the full completion of Stage 2.
The western portion of the Kakula mine, which remains dry, is expected to restart operations later this month. The eastern side — where the flooding occurred — will resume once dewatering and remediation work is completed. Despite the underground mining suspension, Ivanhoe confirmed that its Phase 1 and Phase 2 concentrators continue to operate. These facilities are currently processing surface stockpiles at about 50% of their combined nameplate capacity. Once mining resumes on the western side, ore from that section will be redirected into the concentrators to increase throughput.
The Kamoa-Kakula complex has been a key asset for Ivanhoe and Zijin, with the operation emerging as a major source of copper amid growing global demand for the metal, driven in part by the energy transition and infrastructure development.
Ivanhoe stated that near- and long-term mine plans are being revised in light of the recent incident. The company and its joint venture partners are undertaking a geotechnical assessment of the mine to better understand the extent of the damage and the future stability of underground operations. Results from that assessment are expected to be released next week. While the company has not provided updated production forecasts, analysts suggest that a phased return to operations could allow Kakula to recover significant output by the third quarter, assuming no major delays in infrastructure delivery or additional safety concerns.
Although Ivanhoe and Zijin issued differing early statements regarding the scale of the flooding, both partners have since aligned on the path forward, and coordination on the engineering and recovery plan appears to be ongoing.
Monday’s share price recovery reflects investor confidence in Ivanhoe’s ability to manage the incident and limit long-term operational disruptions. However, the situation remains fluid, and the full impact on the mine’s 2025 production figures is still uncertain.
The Kamoa-Kakula complex has been among the most closely watched copper assets globally due to its scale and high-grade ore body. Continued delays or complications could influence broader supply projections for the copper market, already under pressure from increased demand and constrained global supply chains.
The above references an opinion and is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. The author is not an insider or shareholder of any of the companies mentioned above.
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