Goldman Sachs has revised its gold forecast, delaying the expected $3,000 per ounce milestone from the end of this year to mid-2026. This adjustment reflects expectations for fewer rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The bank’s analysts, including Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven, in a recent note now project gold to reach $2,910 by year-end, influenced by slower monetary easing and weaker ETF flows in December, partly due to reduced uncertainty following the US election.
The bank highlighted a balancing act in the gold market, with declining speculative demand offset by strong central bank purchases. They estimate central banks will continue buying an average of 38 tons of gold monthly through mid-2026, which will remain a significant factor in price trends.
Last year, gold surged 27% due to US monetary easing, safe-haven demand, and central bank activity. However, the rally slowed after November, as Donald Trump’s election victory strengthened the dollar, and recent Federal Reserve caution on rate cuts added further pressure. Goldman now predicts 75 basis points in rate cuts this year, less than its earlier estimate of 100 basis points. The bank maintains a more dovish stance than market pricing, citing expectations of declining inflation and limited impact from potential Trump administration policies on interest rates.
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