Fitch Ratings – London – 30 November 2020: China’s post-pandemic economic recovery and sizeable infrastructure-focused government stimulus boosted global metals and mining prices, helping to stabilise Fitch Ratings’ expectations for the sector’s performance in 2021. Risks of pandemic-related supply disruptions and slower-than-forecast economic growth will linger next year, but their impact on the sector will be moderate compared with the downturn in 1H20.

Improved demand in the metals and mining sector was primarily driven by a quick recovery in China, fuelled by significant government investments in infrastructure as well as monetary policies that support construction, although a full economic recovery in other regions will take longer. Our stable sector outlook reflects favourable conditions in several important markets, such as iron ore, copper and aluminium. We expect prices to moderate in 2021 and align closer with market fundamentals. Supply-demand dynamics for individual commodities will evolve, reflecting economic growth in various regions and potential supply disruptions driven by pandemic-related restrictions or weather conditions.

Iron ore and gold miners will continue to benefit from robust demand and cash flow generation in 2021. Increasing supply from Brazil is key for reducing the global market deficit, which could be delayed, leading to some upside potential for our price assumptions. We expect the copper and nickel markets to be broadly balanced in the medium term. Demand for nickel, which is used in batteries, could be boosted by the European green recovery pledges that introduce tax breaks and purchase incentives for electric vehicles.

Commodities such as aluminium, zinc, metallurgical coal and thermal coal will remain over-supplied in the near term. Prudent financial policies that could help mitigate emerging risks are key for the ratings in these segments.

Fonte: Fitch Ratings