Copper prices climbed to their highest level in 16 months on the London Metal Exchange after Teck Resources (NYSE:TECK) cut its 2025 production forecast, citing ongoing operational challenges at two of its major mines in Chile and Canada. The latest reduction adds to growing concerns about global supply disruptions that have already driven prices up sharply this year. The metal has gained roughly 23% since the start of the year, supported by tightening supply conditions that have overshadowed weaker demand in key industrial economies.
Teck Resources said it now expects to produce between 170,000 and 190,000 tons of copper in 2025. The revised range marks a substantial decrease from the company’s previous guidance of 210,000 to 230,000 tons. The company also lowered its annual production targets for the following three years.
A major source of the company’s difficulties remains its Quebrada Blanca (QB) mine in northern Chile, a project that has faced years of setbacks and massive cost overruns. Originally budgeted at a lower level, the QB expansion has ended up about $4 billion over budget and years behind schedule. Current issues at the site include damage to key equipment, instability within the open-pit mine, and complications tied to tailings storage at its high-altitude location in the Andes. Teck’s Highland Valley Copper (HVC) operation in British Columbia has also been affected by persistent operational challenges, contributing to the downward revision in output expectations.
The reduction in Teck’s production outlook comes amid a broader pattern of supply disruptions across major copper-producing regions. Accidents and technical setbacks have limited output from several large mines, including those in Chile, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Indonesia. Analysts have been trimming global production forecasts in response, warning that the market may face a sizable supply deficit in the coming months.
The situation worsened following a severe incident at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Papua, Indonesia—the world’s second-largest copper operation—where flooding forced the company to declare force majeure and suspend production. Freeport confirmed that all seven workers who went missing during the incident were found dead after the discovery of five additional bodies over the weekend.
Market analysts are divided over how high copper prices could climb before stabilizing. Citigroup forecasts that prices may reach $12,000 per tonne in the first half of next year, supported by continuing supply cuts and a weaker US dollar. However, the bank expects prices to ease gradually through 2026 as disrupted mines resume operations and supply chains stabilize. For now, however, the market remains driven by tightening supply conditions and production setbacks that show little sign of immediate resolution. With Teck’s revised outlook adding to an already strained global supply picture, copper’s recent rally underscores how fragile the balance between production and demand has become in one of the world’s most essential industrial metals.
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