Copper prices rose to new highs on Monday, extending a record-breaking rally driven by accelerating stockpiling in the United States and renewed signals from China that domestic economic growth will be its central priority next year. The combination has strengthened expectations of tighter global supply and firmer demand through 2026.
London Metal Exchange (LME) futures rose as much as 1.3% to $11,771 a ton, surpassing the all-time high set just one session earlier. The metal has been climbing steadily in recent weeks, a move that market participants largely attribute to a mass flow of copper into the US ahead of anticipated tariff expansions. The relocation of significant tonnage has amplified concerns that inventories elsewhere could face strain, increasing the likelihood of a broader supply squeeze.
The latest price escalation followed China’s announcement that it will maintain a “proactive” fiscal approach for 2026, reinforcing expectations for robust industrial activity. As the world’s largest consumer of copper, China’s policy signals are closely watched across the metals sector. Analysts highlighted that the recent Politburo readout suggested stronger government support for growth than markets had predicted.
According to analysts at Citic Securities Co., the market may face a global shortfall of refined copper of up to 450,000 tons in 2026, a deficit partly linked to US stockpiling of refined products. They also noted that copper prices would need to average above $12,000 a ton next year in order to incentivize new mining investment and help balance the market over the medium to long term. The US market has already shown signs of tightness. Prices on the Comex exchange rallied to a record at the end of July in anticipation of tariff measures targeting the metal. The inflow of copper into the country has played a role in draining availability elsewhere, reinforcing the upward pressure on global benchmark prices.
On the supply side, the rally has been fueled by a combination of strong consumption from data centers and electric vehicles—both sectors that rely heavily on copper—and a spate of mine outages across multiple regions. These disruptions have contributed to what analysts increasingly describe as a structurally constrained supply environment. Copper has gained 34% on the LME this year, marking one of the metal’s strongest performances in decades. With China emphasizing growth, the US drawing in material ahead of policy changes, and supply challenges showing no sign of easing, the market continues to build upon a rally that many expected to be temporary but is proving far more persistent.
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