Chile’s state copper commission, Cochilco, sharply increased its price expectations for the metal over the next two years, citing weak output across several major operations and a broader structural imbalance between supply and demand. The updated figures, released Wednesday, mark the highest annual copper price forecasts the commission has ever issued.
The agency now projects an average price of $4.45 per pound in 2025, revising upward from its previous estimate of $4.30 per pound. Its 2026 forecast has also been raised to $4.55 per pound, compared with an earlier outlook of $4.30 per pound. Both forecasts set new record highs for the commission’s long-term projections.
According to Victor Garay, Cochilco’s mining market coordinator, the commission expects copper prices to remain on an upward trajectory through at least 2030, driven by persistent supply constraints that fail to keep pace with global demand. Garay noted that while the long-term trend appears favorable for prices, several risks remain. These include potential tariff changes and the possibility of a shift in demand patterns, either of which could affect the outlook.
A tighter supply picture in Chile—still the world’s largest producer of copper—has played a central role in the forecast revision. Cochilco reported that weak performance at the Collahuasi mine, which is jointly operated by Anglo American and Glencore, has contributed to lower-than-expected production volumes. The agency also highlighted reduced output from Anglo American Sur and the impact of an accident at Codelco’s El Teniente mine, one of the country’s flagship operations. Taken together, these setbacks have constrained national production levels. Cochilco now expects Chilean copper output to grow only 0.1% this year, reaching 5.51 million metric tons. Production is projected to increase 2.5% in 2026, bringing total output to 5.6 million metric tons.
Garay added that despite the disruption at El Teniente, other operations are expected to compensate for the mine’s reduced production going forward, supporting an anticipated recovery. Cochilco believes Chilean copper production could reach 5.9 million metric tons in 2027 as these adjustments take effect.
On the demand side, Cochilco anticipates continued growth in global consumption of copper, although the commission described this expansion as occurring with “less dynamism” than in previous periods. Still, even moderated demand growth reinforces an environment in which supply struggles to keep up, contributing to the bullish pricing outlook.
The combination of muted near-term production gains, incidents affecting major mines, and sustained demand has underpinned Cochilco’s decision to issue its most optimistic copper price forecasts on record. While the commission maintains confidence in the upward trend through the end of the decade, it continues to watch for potential policy or macroeconomic developments that could alter the trajectory.
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