A Chinese billionaire who quietly earned $1.5 billion from a bold bet on gold is now staking nearly $1 billion on copper, marking one of the largest individual commodity trades in China in recent years. Bian Ximing, a reclusive trader and former industrialist, has positioned himself as the largest copper bull on the Shanghai Futures Exchange through his brokerage Zhongcai Futures Co., according to exchange data and people familiar with the trades.

Bian, 61, has steadily accumulated long copper positions over the past 10 months, betting on the metal’s importance in the future economy. As of the end of last week, his exposure had grown to nearly 90,000 tons of copper futures—far outpacing other players in the market. Much of that stake is tied to Bian personally, despite recent market volatility and rising geopolitical tensions that have prompted some of his investors to step away.

His commitment to the copper trade contrasts sharply with the more cautious or short-term approach of other market participants. Li Yiyao, a vice president at Cofco Futures in Shanghai, described the position as a rare expression of long-term bullish conviction in copper fundamentals. She pointed out that Bian maintained his stance even as other traders pulled back during recent U.S.-China trade turmoil. Bian’s name isn’t new to Chinese commodity circles. His earlier gains came from well-timed gold futures bets, made through Zhongcai. As global inflation fears and currency de-dollarization debates took hold, gold prices surged. Bian’s fund entered just before that rally, resulting in an estimated $1.5 billion profit, according to Bloomberg’s calculations.

This time, copper is his focus. The metal has drawn growing investor interest due to its central role in electrification, infrastructure upgrades, and energy transition plans. Supply limitations, especially in mining, have further tightened the market. Traders have also responded to recent U.S. tariff threats by redirecting shipments and shifting holdings, which has helped push prices higher and left some global inventories unusually low.

Though copper prices currently sit around $9,500 per ton, major players like Mercuria’s Kostas Bintas have forecast highs of $12,000 to $13,000. Bian seems to share this outlook. He flipped from short to long in late 2024, around the time of the U.S. presidential election. Sources familiar with his trades say he anticipated a Trump win would boost local manufacturing, while also expecting fresh stimulus measures from Beijing. By January, his buying accelerated. Zhongcai’s positions reached 40,000 lots—or about 200,000 tons—at their peak in April. He then moved part of the fund’s activity to the Comex in the U.S. to take advantage of price swings triggered by tariff announcements. As of late April, Bloomberg estimates put Zhongcai’s copper profits around $200 million. His copper stance appears unhedged. The same people familiar with his trades say Bian currently holds no short positions.

One timing element worked in his favor: when copper briefly plunged last month on tariff fears, Chinese markets were shut for a national holiday. Traders in Shanghai, including Bian, avoided the worst of the downturn. Though some investors have pulled capital from Zhongcai since then, concerned about a global slowdown, Bian has doubled down, increasing his long holdings in both Shanghai and overseas.

People close to the situation say Bian sees resilience in China’s economy and believes demand for copper will keep rising as the country transitions to high-tech sectors that rely more heavily on the metal. Market analysts tracking his movements argue the position is large enough to signal confidence, but not disruptive to pricing. Jia Zheng, head of trading at Soochow Jiuying Investment Management, said Bian’s positions offer a window into his broader strategy, which many traders now monitor closely following his success in gold.

Bian’s background reflects the trajectory of modern Chinese capitalism. He was born in 1963 in Zhuji, a small town in Zhejiang province. He came of age during the Cultural Revolution and graduated in 1985 from a vocational school linked to the central bank. Ten years later, he founded a factory making high-end plastic tubes, riding China’s building boom.

He went on to develop a sprawling business empire with holdings across construction materials, financial services, and property. His companies have operated in the U.S., UK, Hong Kong, and India. In 2003, he acquired the futures brokerage that became Zhongcai, adding financial markets to his portfolio. He also holds a significant stake in a media subsidiary of Alibaba Group.

Though based in Gibraltar for more than a decade, Bian remains active in Chinese markets. He leads his team remotely, rarely returning to China. His posts on investment strategy, shared online, have earned a following. In January, he wrote that good investors should “let go of ego,” stay focused on trends, and remain “stubborn” once a direction is chosen.

His approach resembles that of Western hedge funds more than China’s often speculative trading culture. Bian is known for relying on independent calls and for going against market consensus, something he developed during his early years trading plastic derivatives. But his portfolio hasn’t been immune to losses. While gold soared, his equity and local bond investments suffered amid a global flight to safety. In a post last year, he wrote that investment “is essentially a game of survival,” warning that opportunities and traps often appear together.

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