Kinross Gold (TSX: K) NYSE: KGC) has cut its 2026 and 2027 production outlook by about 8% from the previous guidance midpoint after weather and metallurgical problems at La Coipa in Chile and weaker mining performance at Round Mountain in Nevada.

The Toronto-based producer now expects 1.84 million to 1.86 million attributable gold-equivalent oz. a year, down from 1.9 million to 2.1 million previously. All-in sustaining costs (AISC) this year are forecast at $1,850 to $1,900 per oz. sold, up from $1,730, while third-quarter production is expected to be about 425,000 gold-equivalent ounces.

“We view the combined update negatively,” Desjardins analyst Bryce Adams said in a note late Wednesday. The bank cut its Kinross target to C$53 from C$58 while maintaining a buy rating. Adams said the new production forecast is 8% to 9% below consensus and the revised AISC forecast is about 8% above Kinross’ previous guidance.

Kinross partly offset the weaker outlook by raising its 2026 shareholder return target to 50% of free cash flow from 40%. It has returned about $800 million to shareholders so far this year, including about $655 million through share buybacks, the company said in its operational update.

The update came after Wednesday’s market close. Kinross shares had ended the session down 3.8% at C$38.91 apiece in Toronto. Its US-listed shares fell another 3.2% to about $26.75 each in premarket trading Thursday.

Limited impact

Scotiabank analyst Tanya Jakusconek estimated the changes would reduce the bank’s average 2026-27 earnings and cash-flow-per-share forecasts by about 10%, but cut its net asset value estimate by only about 3%.

Scotia, which estimates La Coipa and Round Mountain account for just 2% and 5% of Kinross’ net asset value respectively, lowered its target to $39 from $41 while maintaining a “sector outperform” rating.

BMO Capital Markets analyst Matthew Murphy also viewed the setbacks as concentrated at the two mines.

“We see issues as limited in scope and other operations are intact,” Murphy said. BMO lowered its target by C$1 to C$48 while maintaining an Outperform rating. The bank had expected third-quarter production of 478,000 gold-equivalent oz., compared with Kinross’ new estimate of 425,000 oz. and consensus of 495,000 ounces.

La Coipa

A series of winter storms disrupted mining and milling at La Coipa during the third quarter, leaving mining rates and mill throughput below plan into September.

Kinross also encountered higher-than-expected copper grades and poorer recoveries in some sulphide ore. The company has lowered its 2026 and 2027 forecasts to reflect the weaker recovery and is stockpiling some copper-rich material for possible future processing.

A prefeasibility study is examining the addition of a flotation circuit to process higher-copper sulphide mineralization identified below several open pits. Kinross said the transition from oxide ore to deeper sulphide mineralization may also point to an underlying copper porphyry system that it is exploring.

Weather and mining conditions have recently stabilized, improving mining rates and blending, the company said.

Round Mountain

At Round Mountain, lower mining rates, grades and recoveries at Phase S have also reduced expected output this year and next. Slower mining is pushing some higher-grade ore into future periods, while poorer mill grades and recoveries represent lost production against earlier estimates.

The operation is taking steps to improve grades and recoveries, including using a smaller shovel to reduce dilution, BMO said.

Phase S is intended as a bridge to the higher-grade Phase X underground operation, which remains scheduled to start contributing production in 2028. Kinross approved Phase X and two other US growth projects.