Canada has the resources and project pipeline needed to achieve the federal government’s goal of doubling uranium exports by 2035, but success will hinge on execution, according to a mining risk expert at Marsh Canada.

The country is the world’s second largest producer behind Kazakhstan, and uranium is sourced entirely from high-grade operations like McArthur River and Cigar Lake in northern Saskatchewan, the sole producing jurisdiction. Both mines are operated by Cameco. McClean Lake, operated by Orano Canada, also processes ore from Cigar Lake at its local mill. 

Canada produces yellowcake and uranium dioxide and does not have domestic enrichment facilities because its flagship CANDU reactors run on natural, unenriched uranium. 

Raul Munoz, managing director, mining & natural resources at Marsh said the challenge is not whether Canada can produce more uranium, but whether projects can be advanced through permitting, financing and policy implementation quickly enough.

“The challenge around uranium production and exports isn’t about the technical ability of it or the fact that we can do it,”  Munoz told MINING.COM in an interview. “It’s really the execution.”

The comments come after Ottawa unveiled its national uranium strategy in June, which aims to double exports by 2035 while strengthening domestic supply chains, supporting Indigenous participation and positioning the country as a secure supplier of nuclear fuel.

According to Munoz, Canada’s resource base is not in question.

“When you look at the reserves and how much uranium — and not just the uranium in general, but the grade of uranium — we have in Saskatchewan, it’s actually staggering,” Munoz said, pointing to projects including NexGen Energy’s Rook I development and Denison Mines’ Wheeler River project as evidence that the production target is technically achievable.

Policy, capital and uranium prices

While the industry has sufficient geological potential, Munoz identified execution as the principal risk facing the strategy.

“The biggest risk is the execution risk when it comes to actually applying this on policy and capital,” he said, noting that mine development typically takes 10 to 20 years and cannot be accelerated overnight.

Beyond permitting and government support, maintaining uranium prices at levels that justify continued investment will also be critical, Munoz said.

“It really will come down to capital and making sure the price of uranium stays at a price level where it’s sustainable.”

Geopolitics also remains an important consideration, particularly Canada’s relationships with customers in Europe and the United States.

“In mining, geopolitics is synonymous with everything that they do,” Munoz said.

Nuclear fuel chain gap

Munoz highlighted what could become an important issue as Canada expands its ambitions in small modular reactors (SMRs).

While Canada’s CANDU reactors use natural uranium that does not require enrichment, many SMR designs require enriched uranium, creating an additional processing step that Canada currently does not perform domestically.

“With SMRs, you require enriched uranium, which requires an enriching facility… we don’t do [that] in Canada,” Munoz said, adding that the issue warrants closer examination as SMR deployment expands.

Despite that gap, Munoz expressed confidence in Canada’s nuclear technology capabilities, saying they see little technological risk associated with SMRs.

“I don’t see a technology risk when it comes to SMRs. And I actually see Canada doing a lot more of that.”

Broader than production

Munoz also emphasized that the federal strategy extends beyond increasing uranium output, incorporating innovation, Indigenous ownership and broader sustainability considerations.

“It’s a very comprehensive strategy,” he said. “We’re talking about innovation. We’re also talking about Indigenous rights and ownership… It encompasses all this ESG or sustainability side of things.”

Munoz also pointed out that higher long-term demand for nuclear fuel could eventually make previously shuttered uranium operations economically viable again.

“If we assume that the world is moving in a nuclear-positive trajectory, absolutely,” he said when asked whether decommissioned uranium mines could return to production.